A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
