Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
